BCPI · Cycle Position
Bitcoin Cycle
Position Index
A normalized quantitative framework designed to express Bitcoin’s estimated position within its current market cycle on a scale from −100 to +100.
Indicator primer
What the BCPI measures
The Bitcoin Cycle Position Index is a temporal positioning framework. It takes the time elapsed since the halving and maps the current observation onto a normalized cycle path whose upper and lower anchors are derived from the historical timing of major post-halving extremes. The result is a common −100 to +100 scale that can be compared across different Bitcoin market eras.
BCPI is intentionally based on timing rather than price magnitude. A reading near the ATH region means that the observation lies near the model’s empirically derived upper timing zone; a reading near the ATL region means that it lies near the lower timing zone. The same BCPI value can therefore coexist with very different price levels, volatility regimes and macroeconomic conditions.
Historical timing is uncertain and the model preserves methodological vintages instead of rewriting the past with today’s parameters. For that reason, cycle extremes are better interpreted as empirical windows or distributions than as exact calendar dates. BCPI estimates temporal position; it does not guarantee that a market extreme will occur when a particular score is reached.
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Official historical series
BCPI through time
The historical series is constructed using the model version that was available at each point in time, preserving methodological vintages instead of applying today’s parameters retroactively.
Interpretation
How to read the index
The scale is continuous. The ranges below are interpretative bands rather than rigid market classifications, and the same reading can coexist with very different price levels, volatility regimes and macroeconomic conditions.
Estimated proximity to the upper cycle anchor.
Advanced upward cycle position approaching the ATH region.
Central portion of the normalized cycle path.
Advanced downward cycle position approaching the ATL region.
Estimated proximity to the lower cycle anchor.
Methodological framework
A transparent cycle-position model
BCPI is a deterministic, time-based cycle framework. It uses completed modern Bitcoin cycles to define empirical ATH and ATL timing windows relative to each halving, then maps the current observation date onto a normalized −100/+100 path.
Halving anchor
Each cycle begins from the corresponding Bitcoin halving date, providing a common temporal origin.
Empirical windows
Observed modern cycles define the timing intervals associated with ATH and ATL regions.
Normalized position
Elapsed time between successive cycle anchors is translated into a continuous standardized score.
| Model vintage | Effective from | Training cycles | ATH timing | ATL timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCPI_v0.1 | 11 May 2020 | 2016 | Point estimate at week 75.14 | Point estimate at week 127.00 |
| BCPI_v1.0 | 21 November 2022 | 2016 and 2020 | Weeks 75.14–78.29 | Weeks 127.00–132.00 |
Data and maintenance
Frequency, versioning and public access
Operational specification
| Update frequency | Daily |
| Public output | Current reading, phase and historical chart |
| Current model | BCPI_v1.0 |
| Current software | Version 1.4 |
| Historical start | 11 May 2020 |
| Version policy | Historical vintages are preserved; parameters are not rewritten retroactively. |
| Machine-readable access | Reserved for future subscriber and licensing services. |
Limitations
What the BCPI does not claim
No price target
The index estimates temporal cycle position and does not specify a future Bitcoin price or return.
No guarantee of recurrence
Future cycles may deviate materially from the historical timing patterns used by the framework.
Limited completed-cycle sample
Bitcoin has a short market history, so empirical windows are based on a small number of modern observations.
Not a standalone decision rule
BCPI should be interpreted alongside market structure, liquidity, volatility and broader risk conditions.
Research and access
Documentation and data access
Probabilistic post-halving cycle timing
The Research Library documents the empirical timing framework behind BCPI, including post-halving temporal anchors, formation windows, historical-vintage logic, uncertainty treatment and the limits of cycle-timing inference.
Open related research →Historical series and machine-readable outputs
Extended historical series, versioned files and machine-readable outputs are available on request for research, institutional and licensing purposes.
Request data access →The Bitcoin Cycle Position Index is a quantitative research output, not personalised investment advice, financial advice, a recommendation, solicitation or trading instruction. Historical cycle structures may not recur, model timing windows are subject to uncertainty, and the BCPI should not be used as a standalone decision rule. Read the full Research & Investment Disclaimer.